Eritrea Walks into the Sanction Trap

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Mogos Tekeste
(This is the pen-name of Abraham G. Ghiorgis)

On December 23, 2009, the Security Council imposed sanctions on Eritrea for “over its role in Somalia, [and] refusal to withdraw troops following conflict with Djibouti.” See S/C9833. The PFDJ is blaming the USA for this sanction. It is in the works that the PFDJ may conduct a massive demonstration against the USA. Here, I am not debating the merit of the sanction. For arguments sake, let us assume that the USA is not a saint on this issue. For a change, I will act as if I were a good friend of the PFDJ. In that capacity, I will help the PFDJ not to bark at the wrong tree and somehow guide it to where its protests, angers and arrows should be directed.

The Security Council rarely imposes sanctions. The supporters of the PFDJ need to come back to earth and see things as they are; they have to come to grips with the fact that Eritrea under the PFDJ is completely isolated in the international arena. If nothing else that is the crucial message of the sanction.

The five veto wielding members of the Security Council are the USA, the UK, France, Russia and China. As far as sanction against Eritrea is concerned, in practical terms, the alignment of forces in the Security Council is unanimous. This needs to be digested. One has to forget the no vote of Libya since it amounts to nothing. Just concentrate on the five veto wielding nations. Even when it comes to the veto wielding nations, for this analysis one needs to ignore the USA, UK and France; I will even go further and assume that these three nations are hell bent to “harm” Eritrea. That is the assumption of the PFDJ anyhow. Then let us concentrate on the two nations that historically had been in the opposite camp of the USA – Russia and China.

No matter from which angle one examines and scrutinizes the matter, China's vote in real terms amounts to a support for sanction against Eritrea. No one should be fooled by China’s vote of abstention. Measured by its impact, an abstention by a veto wielding power in such a situation is tantamount to a “Yes" vote for sanction. If China was opposed to the sanction, it could have stopped it by a straight forward “No” vote to sanction. The real and pathetic story is that Eritrea could not get the support of China. The big question is why? Is it a diplomatic ineptness? Is it because Eritrea is so out-and-out wrong that nothing can be done? Whatever answers one gives to these questions, the real tribulations are within Eritrea.

Russia point blank voted for the sanction, so much so about the erection of the Pushkin monument in Asmara, much ado about nothing; as always there are misplaced priorities in Eritrea. How come Eritrea cannot get the support of Russia? The sanction did not come suddenly out of the blue. It was in the air for a very long time. What kind of assurance did Eritrea get from the Russian dignitaries who were visiting Eritrea? Or was this issue never discussed? Was Eritrea unable to read the signals coming from the Russians? Did the Eritrean leaders bungle this? Again, the bottom line is that the problems are still inherently within Eritrea.

There is a Tigrinya saying: “there is no cure for the one who hides his ailments.” Eritrea under the PFDJ is sick. It appears that the Eritrean leaders have lost all senses of reality; they are living in a delusion of grandeur; they act in the world stage as if they were leaders of a nation that is not small, war ravaged and poor and; they pretend to go toe-to-toe with the mightiest nation on the Earth – the USA. There is no diplomatic or political remedy for such kind of an ailment. The cure is as simple as a walk to the nearest psychiatric ward. All this hoopla in front of the whole wide world may be a mercy call for such an intervention. The supporters of the PFDJ need to wake up from their deep slumber and face this heartbreaking reality.

Stalin was a brutal dictator; he caused the deaths of millions of innocent Russians and East Europeans; still he was a master of diplomacy; he was able to charm the USA and the UK, so much so that he persuaded them to do his external bidding with the result that at the end of the World War II, he controlled half of Europe. When it comes to internal Eritrean matters, it appears that the PFDJ has perfected Stalin’s brutality and butchery; however when it comes to external matters the PFDJ has been unable to learn from the flexibility and finesse of Stalin's foreign diplomacy. (See: “Stalin the Court of the Red Star, by Simon Sebag Montefiore”)

Now, the PFDJ has to figure out how to cure its self inflicted pain. The problem is not external; it is not with the USA, or Ethiopia, or the United Nations. The problem is internal and the solution is within Eritrea. Insulting the USA or the UN will not help the matter.

For starters, Somalia does not border Eritrea; there is Ethiopia on one side and Djibouti on the other side separating Eritrea from Somalia. To put this in perspective, the geographical proximity between Eritrea and Somalia is akin to the geographical proximity between Eritrea and Kenya, or between Eritrea and Egypt. Thus, instability in Somalia should have no direct bearing to the national security of Eritrea. In addition, the fight in Somalia is mostly internal -- it is a civil war among Somali clans. In accordance with the rule of law, this civil war should not concern foreigners -- that is external forces should not interfere by favoring one group over another -- including Eritrea. No nation has a right to interfere in the internal affairs of other nations. As for Djibouti, it appears that the PFDJ has not learned an iota of a lesson from its uncalled border war with Ethiopia, another telling sign that the PFDJ is sick in the head. The PFDJ has an aversion to the rule of law -– it is lawless in its internal and external dealings. See The Rule of Law in Eritrea

I do not believe in name-calling and foul language. Nor does the current sanction call for any kind of protest when one really knows that the problem that needs immediate attention is internal to Eritrea. Still, if the PFDJ insists to go down the road of verbal abuse it better direct its rudeness against China and Russia for not “defending” Eritrea; if it still insists to protest through a massive demonstration then it better demonstrate against China and Russia; if it earnestly believes that the problem is external then it must face and confront China and Russia – two nations that “betrayed” and might have given the PFDJ a false hope and yet when it really counted they turned around and enabled and emboldened the USA to "punish" Eritrea. If the PFDJ cannot garner the support of Russia and China, then its isolation in the world arena of the power shakers and movers is complete.

Dictators never learn. Foolish of me to equate Isaias with Stalin, there are dictators that belong in a major league such as Stalin. Isaias relatively speaking though he matches Stalin in some of his brutality, he is not in the same club as Stalin -- a world figure who was intimately knowledgeable of world politics, a very well read and extremely intelligent man.

Rather, it seems that Isaias is in the little league of dumb dictators like Idi Amin of Uganda, Pol Pot of Kampuchea and Saddam Hussein of Iraq. To paraphrase a famous historian that it invariably happens that when a despot is not checked within his own nation by his own people, he gets checked by external powers that are superior to him. It appears that this is taking place here. All the above minor league dictators were not checked by their own peoples. Their undoings were due to foreigners. Idi Amin was checkmated by Tanzania; Pol Pot was checkmated by Vietnam and; Hussein was checkmated by the USA. If things go as they are today in Eritrea without any qualitative change, it looks that eventually Isaias will face the fate of Saddam Hussein. This may be a blessing in disguise for the Eritrean people.

Mogos Tekeste ***

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*** For past articles visit: http://eritreamereb.blogspot.com/